The Bottom LineWe are constantly bombarded by marketing claims (whether they are media ads or in-person demonstrations) that try to provide compelling evidence that will convince us that a product or service is safe and effective.It is extremely important to understand differences between the two main types of evidence you will encounter as you try and evaluate claims and determine whether any given product or service is actually safe and effective or just a feel-good 'remedy' that does not actually work as advertised.
Two other methods of obtaining evidence that are more reliable than
uncontrolled testimonials (anecdotes) are discussed on this page, but evidence
collected by these methods is not generally used in marketing programs.
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This discussion will examine Experimental Evidence
(collected using scientific research techniques) and my contention that: To
provide reliable evidence that supports health claims about any product or
service (particularly altered/enhanced water products that are allegedly
energized, vortexted, structured, clustered, ionized, succussed, magnetized,
oxygenated, etc.), it is necessary to control the way the evidence is collected,
analyzed and presented. This requires establishing and recording objective
outcomes that can be clearly defined, tested and measured. Three important
characteristics of collecting controlled outcomes are that:
(1) all outcomes
(positive and negative) are collected and clearly documented - not just outcomes that support
the claim,
(2) a clear description of how the data was collected and
analyzed is recorded, so anyone can evaluate the experimental process and try to
reproduce and verify the results, and
(3) the process (experiments and/or observations) to collect the evidence
and analyze the results is designed to minimize personal bias and expectations -
which always contaminate poorly designed studies.
I discuss elsewhere how uncontrolled testimonials, which are generally solicited to help market a product or service or support other pseudoscientific claims, cannot be trusted to provide accurate, unbiased information about product effectiveness.
If we can't necessarily trust what people tell us about their experiences with a product, though, how can we discover useful information about a product and determine whether a claim made about some product or service is accurate and trustworthy or whether it is pure marketing fantasy? Testimonials are not all worthless, and they can actually provide useful information – but only if collection of the testimonials is controlled in a way that minimizes the potential problems outlined in the uncontrolled testimonials discussion. The scientific experiment is one process specifically designed to collect information in a controlled manner and provide reliable information that allows an accurate evaluation of the product's effectiveness.
A brief introduction to the methods of science and
some terminology:
The fundamental goal of science is to understand the
natural universe in which we live. Much of this understanding involves
the discovery and description of causality (cause and effect relationships) in nature.
When natural cause and effect relationships are understood it is often
possible to manipulate the causes and thus modify the effects. If the
causes of a disease are understood, for example, processes can be developed
to remove or reduce exposure to those causes and/or modify the body's
response (with vaccines or treatments) and minimize (or cure) the normal disease
effects.
The products of interest in this discussion (altered/enhanced water products) are marketed with claims that they can have some real, significant effects on health that are caused by REAL biological effects on the body and not just placebo responses. If those claims are valid, there must be a way to collect valid supporting evidence using the methods outlined here.
Over the last several centuries scientists have developed a methodology (often referred to as the Scientific Method) that formalized guidelines for discovering possible cause and effect relationships (hypotheses) and then testing them to see if they can be validated. There is lots of interesting (to me anyway) information available about about how science works. However in the context of this very specific discussion, I will mostly focus on how to use the methods of science to collect reliable information about whether a specific product has a real effect on a person's health. This process is often described as Evidence Based Medicine - this article provides an excellent introduction to clinical trials. If you would like additional general information, you can read brief discussions on the goals of science and the scientific method. Wikipedia and Berkeley also have good descriptions of the scientific method.
The key difference between the collection of uncontrolled testimonials to support a product's effectiveness and the scientific collection of information to determine whether a product is effective, is that scientists do not set out to collect only data that supports their hopes, expectations or beliefs about how a product should work. Scientific data collection is (or should be) designed so all relevant data are collected, recorded and analyzed in a manner that minimizes ANY biases, expectations or beliefs scientists have which might influence how experiments are designed and how the data are collected, analyzed and interpreted. Similarly the effects of the biases, expectations or beliefs of those who will use the product (the experimental subjects) should also be minimized.
It is important to realize that both the scientific researchers and the experimental subjects DO HAVE biases, expectations and beliefs about any experiment in which they are involved. If the researchers were not interested in something about the product, and if they didn't have some expectations about the product's effects, they would not bother to conduct an experiment - if they were hired by a company to test a product, they might have a bias to produce favorable results. If the subjects didn't have some expectations and beliefs about some claim made for a product they might not participate in the experiment. The examples below will illustrate how several scientific data collection methods can minimize the effect of all the biases everyone has and let the data 'speak for itself'.
Other scientists judge whether an experiment is valid and has successfully demonstrated a cause and effect relationship in part by how well an experimental design, the methods and data analysis have successfully minimized all potential sources of bias. High quality scientific journals strive only to publish results of studies where effects of bias, and expectation have been successfully controlled (a good starting list). Research results submitted to these journals are reviewed by other researchers who are respected in their field, and papers are only approved for publication if all aspects of the experiment are high quality and meet stringent requirements to minimize bias and maximize objectivity, accuracy and reproducibility. This process of Peer Review is employed by all high quality scientific journals.
In recent years, however, a number of 'journals' have been established that may have impressive names but almost no quality control measures, and their peer review processes are non-existent or poorly controlled. These 'journals' may be business ventures that require payment from the authors to be published &/or they may collect and publish 'research' that supports very biased positions that are not accepted by the scientific community as a whole. Those who publish these suspect 'journals', and those who depend on them to become published, will claim there are conspiracies by the all the standard, high quality journals to suppress the findings of those researchers who are outside mainstream science. They also claim traditional journals are completely biased toward traditional theories, only publish papers that support traditional scientific and medical beliefs and discriminate against anyone with novel ideas by ignoring their research. An interesting example played out in late 2012 and early 2013 when a researcher from the Sasquatch Genome Project claimed to have sequenced Big Foot's DNA and was unable to get her paper published in a reputable journal. She apparently purchased rights to an online journal, DeNovo, and published the paper. The saga can be followed, here: a, b, c and d, from the Dallas Observer, the Huffington Post, io9 and the author herself.
Quantitative and Qualitative Data: There are two basic types of information (or data) about experimental subjects that can be collected and analyzed in scientific studies and used to form a conclusion about the product's effectiveness:
The scientific community has developed two
research processes (Experiments and Surveys) that enable controlled,
interactive data collection by researchers from subjects on whom products
are tested. There are several important characteristics of experiments
(and to some extent, surveys) that help minimize and control for
possible sources of bias. These include:
I am going to be honest here. These examples are brutally detailed. However, the detail is critical to provide enough information for a non-scientist to gain some understanding of how one of the most important scientific tools, controlled experiments works, and how controlled experiments differ from testimonial 'evidence' provided to support pseudoscientific products and services.
A.
Description/Definition of Experiments
Open
Single Blinded
Double Blinded
B. Examples of Double Blind Experiments
Effectiveness Experiment (Double Blinded)
Product Comparison (Double Blinded)
C. Summary
Experiments can be designed to collect two
kinds of information about products:
■
Product Comparison -
Attributes (taste and aroma for example) of two or more products are
compared.
■
Product Effectiveness -
Claims that
a product has a real, beneficial effect on a subject's health are tested.
There are three recognized types of experiments that I will describe below in increasing order of complexity and with an increasing opportunity to collect reliable data.
Specific Examples - a Double Blind Experiment will be
described below. The intent of providing the examples is that you can use the
outlines, and substitute other products that have some measurable claims
and actually test the claims you might be interested in evaluating.
These examples will test the claims of bottled OmyGod
Oxygen Water that is marketed as containing eight times the normal amount of dissolved
oxygen and has just become the rage on college campuses. Two testable
claims are made for OmyGod
Oxygen Water (OmGOBW):
1) Better taste
2) Extra energy and vitality
Participants in a typical research experiment or survey might include:
These examples are fairly simple and could be adapted for a high school science fair project, but they provide a basic outline of the experimental processes that are similar whether the experiment is small and trivial or a multi-million dollar, multi-year experimental study.
I hope it is obvious how evidence collected in a controlled environment is more trustworthy than the uncontrolled testimonials used by those trying to peddle a product for which no objective controlled supporting evidence can be obtained because their product only works in the imagination and not in the real world. It should be obvious too that surveys can't provide the experimental controls that are possible with blinded experiments.
Additional Resources:
Experimental Design for Advanced Science Projects
The Basics of Experimental Design
Disclaimer: The above discussion is not an exhaustive description of how scientific experiments work nor an outline all of the specific details, controls and statistical analyses that must be managed in order to design and execute a high-quality, reproducible experiment that stands a chance at publication in a high-quality journal. Nor are all of the potential pitfalls that can sabotage even the best-intentioned experiment mentioned. The discussion is provided to highlight some of the more important characteristics of scientific experiments, illustrate how they can provide useful information about whether or not claims for a product (or process or procedure) are true, and provide instructions so you can conduct your own blinded tests.
Because surveys can quickly, and relatively inexpensively reach and collect information on a large number of people, they are often the only practical way a representative picture of the attitudes, beliefs and other characteristics of a large population can be developed.
Surveys are also able to collect data on a broad range of subjects that are not easily studied by scientific experiments, for example; attitudes, opinions, beliefs and values. Ironically, these are exactly the human characteristics that can cause some of the unreliability of individual testimonials. These are also the traits that can contribute to the failure of science. Strongly held attitudes, opinions, beliefs and values can result in experiments and observational studies that are poorly designed and carried out only to provide 'evidence' to confirm a specific bias - not to truly understand a situation. Surveys also provide information about relationships between people, places, and things as they exist in the real world that are difficult to study in laboratory experiments.
Surveys have several advantages over experimental studies:
Surveys also have significant disadvantages over experimental studies:
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Cross-Sectional Survey - These studies collect information at a single point in time. A number of individuals are contacted and asked the questions of interest. The individuals are not followed and asked the same set of questions later to see what might occur over time. This example will collect data on the energy benefits of OmyGGod Oxygen Water (OmGOW):
Every time I see results of a survey presented as providing an accurate representation of reality I just remember my own experiences with surveys I have been asked to take. If I choose to participate, there are almost always questions that I simply can't answer within the constraints of the question - or my answer might be variable depending circumstances not addressed in the survey - or, if I feel the survey topic, questions or interviewer are 'out of bounds', I may decide to answer randomly or provide answers that will confuse interpretation. Usually, I choose not to participate, and my experiences and thoughts are not incorporated into the results. If a significant fraction of survey potential respondents treat surveys the way I do, there is little hope for their accuracy.
In the context of this discussion, another method in which valid scientific evidence can be obtained needs to be mentioned - Scientific Observation. Those who try to justify the use of uncontrolled testimonials to validate product claims might point out that science has always depended on observing the world and the universe to understand how the natural universe behaves - and that is just what their testimonials are, observations of what happened when someone tried their product. What they apparently don't understand is that Observations are generally just the first step in the development of all scientific hypotheses and theories - but science never stops with just observations.
The curiosity of scientists who observe natural phenomena can be engaged, and they come up with tentative explanations (or hypotheses) to explain what causes them. At that point the explanations are just educated guesses, but these guesses must lead to predictions that can be validated.
In both cases, however, the processes of science require the hypotheses based on observations to be tested and confirmed. In many cases the predictions based on theories developed using careful observations are validated experimentally when science progresses to the point where evolving technology finally enables experiments to be conducted.
The Theory of Evolution, for example, was formulated by Charles Darwin in the mid 1800s and was based largely on his observations. Since that time a number of predictions about evolution and natural selection formulated on his and other observations have been experimentally validated. Similarly, observations of geological features by several scientists in the early 1900s lead to the development of the Theory of Plate Tectonics.
Another key characteristic of legitimate Scientific Observation is that, like well designed Scientific Experiments, they deal with natural events that are subject to validation by anyone else who wishes to make their own observations.
The 'observations' of pseudo-scientists and those collecting uncontrolled testimonials have two characteristics that quickly separate them from scientific observations.
The Bottom Line: The process of Observational Science and the validity of theories based on the observations are completely different from information collected by and conclusions based on Uncontrolled Testimonials. Testimonials used to promote pseudoscientific products, services and ideas certainly make claims, but the claims are either not testable or they have never been tested by legitimate scientific processes.
Copyright © 2005, Randy Johnson. All rights reserved. |
Updated April 2015 |